A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
