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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.