Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
